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Policy Research Institute

 

Business Outlook Survey

(January-March 2019)

Mar.12, 2019

1. Business conditions

Business survey index

(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

(%points)

 
  Oct.-Dec.
2018
(previous)
Jan.-Mar.
2019
(present)
Apr.-Jun.
2019
(outlook)
Jul.-Sep.
2019
(outlook)
Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 4.3 -1.7 -0.3 5.7
Manufacturing 5.5 -7.3 -2.3 5.7
Non-manufacturing 3.7 1.0 0.7 5.7
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 6.0 -3.8 -1.3 5.4
Manufacturing 7.8 -15.3 -0.8 5.7
Non-manufacturing 5.5 -0.4 -1.4 5.3
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries -4.9 -11.7 -5.6 -2.5
Manufacturing -6.4 -22.9 -11.7 -4.6
Non-manufacturing -4.6 -9.5 -4.5 -2.1

2. Domestic economic conditions

Business survey index

(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

(%points)

 
  Oct.-Dec.
2018
(previous)
Jan.-Mar.
2019
(present)
Apr.-Jun.
2019
(outlook)
Jul.-Sep.
2019
(outlook)
Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 4.7 -1.9 1.2 6.4
Manufacturing 4.8 -6.3 -1.4 4.8
Non-manufacturing 4.7 0.2 2.6 7.2
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 3.8 -4.9 -1.2 5.7
Manufacturing 5.7 -11.4 -3.2 6.3
Non-manufacturing 3.3 -2.9 -0.5 5.5
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries -3.0 -13.6 -8.0 -2.5
Manufacturing -4.8 -24.3 -14.2 -5.0
Non-manufacturing -2.6 -11.4 -6.7 -2.0

3. Employment

Business survey index

(Difference of "insufficient"-"excessive")

(%points)

 
  End of Dec.
2018
(previous)
End of Mar.
2019
(present)
End of Jun.
2019
(outlook)
End of Sep.
2019
(outlook)
Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 21.7 22.1 15.8 14.2
Manufacturing 18.6 15.3 10.3 8.3
Non-manufacturing 23.2 25.5 18.5 17.1
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 36.0 34.6 27.5 25.8
Manufacturing 37.3 34.2 24.5 24.1
Non-manufacturing 35.6 34.8 28.4 26.3
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries 30.2 29.9 23.8 21.6
Manufacturing 32.2 31.7 22.2 19.4
Non-manufacturing 29.8 29.6 24.1 22.1

4. Sales (compared with the previous year)

(%)

 
  FY 2018 1st half
FY 2018
2nd half
FY 2018
FY 2019 1st half
FY 2019
2nd half
FY 2019
All industries 2.4 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.3 -0.1
Manufacturing 2.5 3.5 1.5 1.1 1.4 0.9
Non-manufacturing 2.4 4.1 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5

5. Ordinary profits (compared with the previous year)

(%)

 
  FY 2018 1st half
FY 2018
2nd half
FY 2018
FY 2019 1st half
FY 2019
2nd half
FY 2019
All industries -1.7 1.4 -4.9 -0.4 -3.1 2.4
Manufacturing -5.8 1.6 -13.4 -1.8 -9.3 6.9
Non-manufacturing 0.3 1.3 -0.8 0.2 -0.3 0.7

6. Software and investment in plant and equipment (compared with the previous year)

(%)

 
  FY 2018 1st half
FY 2018
2nd half
FY 2018
FY 2019 1st half
FY 2019
2nd half
FY 2019
All industries 7.4 7.4 7.3 -6.2 4.9 -15.0
Manufacturing 17.2 22.0 13.6 2.3 14.1 -7.2
Non-manufacturing 2.1 -0.4 4.0 -11.6 -1.0 -19.8

Note: Excludes expense purchasing land.