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Policy Research Institute

 

Business Outlook Survey

(October-December 2018)

Dec.11, 2018

1. Business conditions

Business survey index

(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

(%points)

 
  Jul.-Sep.
2018
(previous)
Oct.-Dec.
2018
(present)
Jan.-Mar.
2019
(outlook)
Apr.-Jun.
2019
(outlook)
Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 3.8 4.3 4.7 1.4
Manufacturing 6.5 5.5 4.2 0.2
Non-manufacturing 2.4 3.7 5.0 1.9
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 2.2 6.0 3.5 0.4
Manufacturing 5.4 7.8 -2.0 3.5
Non-manufacturing 1.3 5.5 5.1 -0.5
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries -10.0 -4.9 -6.5 -4.2
Manufacturing -13.6 -6.4 -9.0 -6.0
Non-manufacturing -9.2 -4.6 -6.0 -3.9

2. Domestic economic conditions

Business survey index

(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

(%points)

 
  Jul.-Sep.
2018
(previous)
Oct.-Dec.
2018
(present)
Jan.-Mar.
2019
(outlook)
Apr.-Jun.
2019
(outlook)
Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 6.9 4.7 3.3 3.5
Manufacturing 8.3 4.8 2.7 1.5
Non-manufacturing 6.2 4.7 3.6 4.5
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 4.9 3.8 2.0 2.6
Manufacturing 5.1 5.7 -0.7 2.8
Non-manufacturing 4.8 3.3 2.8 2.6
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries -7.3 -3.0 -6.7 -4.1
Manufacturing -8.1 -4.8 -8.3 -6.1
Non-manufacturing -7.1 -2.6 -6.4 -3.7

3. Employment

Business survey index

(Difference of "insufficient"-"excessive")

(%points)

 
  End of Sep.
2018
(previous)
End of Dec.
2018
(present)
End of Mar.
2019
(outlook)
End of Jun.
2019
(outlook)
Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 19.3 21.7 19.3 14.1
Manufacturing 16.2 18.6 15.0 10.1
Non-manufacturing 20.9 23.2 21.3 16.1
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 34.4 36.0 31.8 26.0
Manufacturing 35.3 37.3 32.1 26.2
Non-manufacturing 34.1 35.6 31.7 25.9
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries 27.9 30.2 25.5 20.3
Manufacturing 29.5 32.2 27.0 19.9
Non-manufacturing 27.6 29.8 25.2 20.4

4. Sales (compared with the previous year)

(%)

 
  FY 2018 1st half
FY 2018
2nd half
FY 2018
All industries 2.8 3.9 1.8
Manufacturing 3.2 3.6 2.8
Non-manufacturing 2.6 4.0 1.4

5. Ordinary profits (compared with the previous year)

(%)

 
  FY 2018 1st half
FY 2018
2nd half
FY 2018
All industries 0.4 1.4 -0.6
Manufacturing -2.3 1.4 -6.0
Non-manufacturing 1.7 1.5 1.9

6. Software and investment in plant and equipment (compared with the previous year)

(%)

 
  FY 2018 1st half
FY 2018
2nd half
FY 2018
All industries 9.1 8.6 9.6
Manufacturing 21.8 23.3 20.6
Non-manufacturing 1.9 0.2 3.1

Note: Excludes expense purchasing land.