Business Outlook Survey

(January-March 2025)

March.12, 2025

1. Business conditions

Business survey index

(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

 
(%points)
   Oct.-Dec.
2024
(previous)
 Jan.-Mar.
2025
(present)
 Apr.-Jun.
2025
(outlook)
 Jul.-Sep.
2025
(outlook)
Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 5.7 2.0 1.5 5.7
Manufacturing 6.3 -2.4 -0.5 6.3
Non-manufacturing 5.4 4.1 2.5 5.5
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 3.8 0.7 3.1 6.9
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries -4.7 -12.7 -5.1 -0.3

2. Domestic economic conditions

Business survey index

(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

 
(%points)
   Oct.-Dec.
2024
(previous)
 Jan.-Mar.
2025
(present)
 Apr.-Jun.
2025
(outlook)
 Jul.-Sep.
2025
(outlook)
Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 4.2 3.1 2.1 3.5
Manufacturing 2.0 -1.3 -1.4 1.2
Non-manufacturing 5.3 5.2 3.8 4.6
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 1.4 -2.3 -0.8 1.5
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries -11.7 -17.7 -13.5 -9.2

3. Employment

Business survey index

(Difference of "insufficient"-"excessive")

 
(%points)
  End of Dec.
2024
(previous)
End of Mar.
2025
(present)
End of Jun.
2025
(outlook)
End of Sep.
2025
(outlook)
Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 27.4 28.3 22.2 20.1
Manufacturing 19.4 20.3 16.6 15.0
Non-manufacturing 31.2 32.2 24.8 22.6
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 41.4 40.9 34.9 30.9
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries 31.7 30.3 25.9 25.4

4. Sales (compared with the previous year)

 
(%)
  FY 2024 FY 2025
All industries 3.2 1.8
Manufacturing 2.6 1.5
Non-manufacturing 3.4 1.8

5. Ordinary profits (compared with the previous year)

 
(%)
  FY 2024 FY 2025
All industries 6.5 -0.2
Manufacturing 1.1 -0.6
Non-manufacturing 8.6 -0.1

6. Software and investment in plant and equipment (compared with the previous year)

 
(%)
  FY 2024 FY 2025
All industries 7.4 5.9
Manufacturing 4.9 10.0
Non-manufacturing 8.8 3.1

Note: Excludes expense purchasing land.

 

Top of Page

 


Ministry of Finance, Policy Research Institute.