Outline of the Survey
(Provisional Translation)
Objective of the survey
The survey aims to obtain basic data concerning the current status and forecasts of the Japanese economy by way of ascertaining business activities, which occupy the major part of economic activities in Japan.
History of the survey
The “Business and Investment Survey of Incorporated Enterprises” by the Cabinet Office and the former “Business Outlook Survey” by the MOF were incorporated for the purpose of enhancing efficiency. The current “Business Outlook Survey,” which is to be jointly conducted by the Cabinet Office and MOF, was commenced in FY2004 as a General Statistical Survey under the Statistics Act.
Survey targets
The survey targets are corporations with capital, contributions, or funds (hereinafter collectively referred to as “capital”) of 10 million yen or over (general partnership companies, limited partnership companies, limited liability companies, and stock companies whose head offices are located in Japan, as well as shinkin banks, a federation of shinkin banks, credit cooperatives, a federation of credit cooperatives, labor banks, a federation of labor banks, norinchukin banks, a federation of credit agricultural cooperatives, a federation of credit fisheries cooperatives, a federation of fishery processing cooperatives, life insurance companies, and nonlife insurance companies whose head offices are located in Japan). However, regarding corporations engaged in the electricity, gas, and water supply industry and the finance and insurance industry, only those with capital of 100 million yen or over are the targets.
The survey is conducted by extracting around 14,400 corporations as samples.
Sampling method
(1) Name lists concerning information on population corporations
This survey uses lists of corporations (those with capital of 100 million yen or over) and lists of lower rank corporations (those with capital of less than 100 million yen that are selected through the equal probability systematic sampling method), both of which are covered by the MOF’s surveys for the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry.
(2) Sampling method
Every year, corporations covered by quarterly surveys for the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry (hereinafter referred to as “Quarterly Surveys”) are classified by capital size and by industry, and a random sampling is conducted as follows.
Industries other than finance and insurance
Firstly stratifying sample corporations selected for “Quarterly Surveys” into seven categories by capital size and 45 categories by industry, and then extracting samples as follows.
1) For those with capital of less than 3 billion yen, the equal probability systematic sampling method is employed.
2) Corporations with capital of 3 billion yen or over are all selected.
【Basic idea for sampling】
- Large corporations with capital of 3 billion yen or over should be all selected, and nearly 50% of those with capital of 1 billion to 3 billion yen should be selected.
- Nearly 50% of small corporations should be selected and the number should be around 6,000.
- Nearly 50% of medium-sized corporations with capital of 500 million to 1 billion yen should be selected and those with capital of 100 million to 500 million yen should be selected later.
- When the total number of selected corporations with capital of less than 500 million yen is smaller than 30 for each stratum for publishing survey results, relevant types of corporations should be additionally selected to increase the total number to 30 (when the total number of the population corporations or samples for “Quarterly Surveys” is less than 30, it is increased to the relevant number).
Finance and insurance industry
Firstly stratifying sample corporations selected for “Quarterly Surveys” into four categories by capital size, and then extracting samples as follows.
1) For those with capital of less than 3 billion yen, the equal probability systematic sampling method is employed.
2) Corporations with capital of 3 billion yen or over are all selected.
【Basic idea for sampling】
- Large corporations with capital of 3 billion yen or over should be all selected, and nearly 50% of those with capital of 1 billion to 3 billion yen should be selected.
- Nearly 50% of medium-sized corporations with capital of 500 million to 1 billion yen should be selected and those with capital of 100 million to 500 million yen should be selected later.
(Note) Small corporations with capital of 10 million to 100 million yen are not covered.
Surveyed items
- Qualitative survey items
- ”Business conditions”, “Domestic economic conditions”, “Employment”, etc.
- Quantitative survey items
- ”Sales”, “Ordinary profit” and “Software and investment in plant and equipment”
Survey periods
| Survey | Survey period | Reference period | Release date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr.-Jun. survey | Late April to late May | May 15 | Around Jun. 12 |
| Jul.-Sep. survey | Late July to late August | Aug. 15 | Around Sep. 12 |
| Oct.-Dec. survey | Late October to late November | Nov. 15 | Around Dec. 10 |
| Jan.-Mar. survey | Late January to late February | Feb. 15 | Around Mar. 11 |
Survey method
This survey is based on questionnaires that self-reporting by mail or online from respondent corporations.
Surveys are conducted via respective Local Finance (Branch) Bureaus, the Okinawa General Bureau, respective Local Finance Offices, the Otaru Sub-office and the Kitami Sub-office of the Hokkaido Local Finance Bureau.
Tabulation method
For nationwide survey results, both for qualitative and quantitative survey items, the amount of population estimates are calculated by capital size and industry. The estimate is made as follows.
Estimated values = Tabulated values / Number of corporations tabulated * Number of corporations of the population corporations
(1) Qualitative survey items
For each questionnaire option, responses are tabulated by capital size and industry, and values for the overall population corporations are calculated based thereon.
Items for the Business Survey Index (BSI)
The BSI forecasts future economic trends, based on quarterly changes in the composition ratios of corporation numbers in responses on business trends, and is calculated as shown in the following example.
(Ex.) Regarding business conditions,
Compared with their business conditions of the previous quarter,
Composition ratio of corporations that chose “Rising”: 40.0%
Composition ratio of corporations that chose “Unchanged”: 25.0%
Composition ratio of corporations that chose “Falling”: 30.0%
Composition ratio of corporations that chose “Unknown”: 5.0%
BSI = (Composition ratio of corporations that chose “Rising”: 40.0%) – (Composition ratio of corporations that chose “Falling”: 30.0%) = 10.0% points
Questionnaire items
For each questionnaire option, composition ratio of corporation numbers is calculated.
Quantitative survey items
For each questionnaire item, responses for the previous fiscal year, the current fiscal year, and the following fiscal year (only in the case of the Jan.-Mar. survey) are tabulated by capital size and industry, and values for the overall population corporations are calculated based thereon.
Categories for publishing survey results
(1) Industrial classification
Thirty-seven industries in accordance with the Japan Standard Industrial Classification.
In principle, classification of the manufacturing industry is based on major groups and that of the non-manufacturing industry is based on divisions.
(2) Classification by capital size
Corporations are classified into the following three categories.
(i) Capital of 10 million to 100 million yen (small corporations)
(ii) Capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen (medium-sized corporations)
(iii) Capital of 1 billion yen or over (large corporations)
Top of Page