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Policy Research Institute

 

Business Outlook Survey 

(January-March 2016)

 Mar. 11, 2016

1. Business conditions

Business survey index
(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

(%points)

 

 Oct.-Dec.
2015
(previous)

 Jan.-Mar.
2016
(present)

 Apr.-Jun.
2016
(outlook)

 Jul.-Sep.
2016
(outlook)

Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 4.6 -3.2 -2.2 5.6
 Manufacturing 3.8 -7.9 -3.5 7.1
 Non-manufacturing 5.0 -0.7 -1.5 4.8
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 3.5 -2.8 -3.5 5.9
 Manufacturing 1.1 -8.6 -3.8 7.5
 Non-manufacturing 4.2 -1.0 -3.3 5.4
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries -7.7 -16.6 -6.8 -2.7
 Manufacturing -6.6 -19.3 -6.1 -4.1
 Non-manufacturing -7.9 -16.1 -6.9 -2.4

 

2. Domestic economic conditions

Business survey index
(Difference of "up"-"down" compared with previous quarter)

(%points)

 

 Oct.-Dec.
2015
(previous)

 Jan.-Mar.
2016
(present)

 Apr.-Jun.
2016
(outlook)

 Jul.-Sep.
2016
(outlook)

Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 5.6 -9.8 -1.2 4.1
 Manufacturing 4.6 -12.0 -2.0 5.4
 Non-manufacturing 6.1 -8.6 -0.8 3.4
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 3.9 -12.1 -4.6 1.4
 Manufacturing -0.7 -14.9 -6.1 3.7
 Non-manufacturing 5.4 -11.2 -4.2 0.6
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries -8.3 -21.7 -11.1 -6.7
 Manufacturing -7.8 -28.4 -11.5 -8.7
 Non-manufacturing -8.4 -20.4 -11.0 -6.3

 

3. Employment

Business survey index
(Difference of "insufficient"-"excessive" )

(%points)

 

End of Dec.
2015
(previous)

End of Mar.
2016
(present)

End of Jun.
2016
(outlook)

End of Sep.
2016
(outlook)

Corporations with capital of 1 billion yen or over
  All industries 13.3 14.3 8.2 7.5
 Manufacturing 6.4 7.3 2.9 3.2
 Non-manufacturing 17.0 18.0 11.0 9.8
Corporations with capital of 100 million to 1 billion yen
  All industries 23.2 25.0 15.6 14.5
 Manufacturing 15.8 16.2 6.4 6.1
 Non-manufacturing 25.6 27.8 18.6 17.2
Corporations with capital of 10 to 100 million yen
  All industries 19.0 19.7 12.4 11.9
 Manufacturing 14.4 17.0 8.9 8.2
 Non-manufacturing 19.9 20.2 13.1 12.6

 

4. Sales (compared with the previous year)

(%)

 

  FY 2015

  1st half

   FY 2015

  2nd half

   FY 2015

  FY 2016

  1st half

   FY 2016

  2nd half

   FY 2016

All industries -0.4 1.1 -1.8 0.1 -0.6 0.7
 Manufacturing -0.3 1.2 -1.8 0.3 -0.5 1.1
 Non-manufacturing -0.4 1.0 -1.8 -0.0 -0.6 0.5

          

   

5. Ordinary profits (compared with the previous year)

(%)

 

  FY 2015

  1st half

   FY 2015

  2nd half

   FY 2015

  FY 2016

  1st half

   FY 2016

  2nd half

   FY 2016

All industries 4.8 14.6 -4.3 -2.4 -10.1 5.9
 Manufacturing 0.7 16.5 -13.6 0.4 -10.9 13.5
 Non-manufacturing 6.8 13.8 0.2 -3.3 -9.8 3.3

          

   

6. Software and investment in plant and equipment (compared with the previous year)

(%)

 

  FY 2015

  1st half

   FY 2015

  2nd half

   FY 2015

  FY 2016

  1st half

   FY 2016

  2nd half

   FY 2016

All industries 8.8 11.3 6.8 -6.6 3.5 -15.0
 Manufacturing 11.1 13.5 9.3 1.7 15.0 -9.7
 Non-manufacturing 7.6 10.2 5.5 -11.3 -3.1 -17.9
    Note:  Excludes expense purchasing land.